HURRICANE

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 07N10W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N50W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 25W.

Gulf Of Mexico

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing light to gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf E of 87W and moderate to fresh SE winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to 6 west of 88W. No significant convection is occurring in the basin, but haze due to agricultural fires in SE Mexico continues to restrict visibility across the western Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE winds will prevail across much of the Gulf through Thu night ahead of a cold front. The front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri and will move across most of the basin through Fri night. The front will then slow down and weaken further as extends from South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through Sat night. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico persists in the western Gulf. Patchy fog is possible along the northern Gulf coast overnight and into the early morning hours today.

Caribbean Sea

A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean. The upper trough will continue to move farther northeast of the area through Thu night, with atmospheric conditions stabilizing in its wake. Abundant tropical moisture remains prevalent just east of the NE Caribbean. Persistent daily rainfall across the Greater Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for the past several days has left soils at or near saturation, and river levels high across this region. Please see local weather advisories for specific information on hazardous local conditions.

The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and extends its ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern is producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas have built to 4 to 6 ft. The remainder of the basin is under gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure centered SE of Bermuda will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south- central and SE Caribbean into the start of next week. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh to strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

The western Atlantic continues to be dominated by a broad ridge anchored on a weak high center of 1021 mb, analyzed near 28N51W. A pair of troughs are located along 58W and 65W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough near 58W, with moderate to fresh winds noted east of the trough between 53W-58W. To the east, the remnants of a front are analyzed as a trough, extending from 31N23W to 22N30W.

Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin N of 20N, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 20N. Rough seas prevail in the periphery of the high pressure center mainly N of 18N between 25W-60W, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, for most of the basin, winds will diminish tonight into Thu as the high pressure shifts E. However, as a cold front approaches the US East Coast, fresh to strong winds will develop off northeast Florida tonight through Fri night. The front will move across Florida late Fri night through Sat, bringing moderate to fresh winds behind it. The front will weaken late in the weekend as it moves east of 65W.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era